Design and inference in phase II/III clinical trials incorporating monitoring of multiple endpoints.

Clinical trial;Bivariate;Phase II;Phase III

Herman E. Ray

University:University of Louisville

Department:Bioinformatics and Biostatistics

关键词: Clinical trial;    Bivariate;    Phase II;    Phase III;   

Others  :  https://ir.library.louisville.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=2188&context=etd

美国|英语

来源: The Universite of Louisville's Institutional Repository

【 摘 要 】

The phase II clinical trial is a critical step in the drug development process. In the oncology setting, phase II studies typically evaluate one primary endpoint, which is efficacy. In practice, a binary measurement representing the response to the new treatment defines the efficacy. The single-arm, multiple-stage designs are popular and the Simon 2-Stage design is preferred. Although the study designs evaluate the efficacy, the subject's safety is an important concern. Safety is monitored through the number of grade 3 or grade 4 toxic events. The phase II clinical trial design based on the primary endpoint is typically augmented with an ad hoc monitoring rule. The studies are designed in two steps. First, the sample size and critical values are determined based on the primary endpoint. Then an ad hoc toxicity monitoring rule is applied to the study. Previous authors recommended a method to monitor toxic events after each patient is enrolled which is also known as continuous toxicity monitoring. A trial designed at the JG Brown Cancer Center combined the Simon 2-Stage design with continuous toxicity monitoring. We describe how to integrate the continuous toxicity monitoring methodology with the Simon 2-Stage design for response. Theoretical justification is given for the nominal size, power, probability of early termination (PET), and average sample size (ASN) of the combined testing procedure. A series of simulations were conducted to investigate the performance of the combined procedure. We discover that the type I error rate, type II error rate, PET, and ASN are subject to the correlation between toxicity and response. In fact, the study may have a smaller type I error rate than expected. The theoretical expressions derived to describe the operating characteristics of the combined procedure were utilized to create a new flexible, bivariate, multistage clinical trial. The design is considered flexible because it can monitor toxicity on a different schedule than response. An example is considered in which toxicity is measured after four equally spaced intervals and the response is evaluated only at the second and fourth toxicity examinations. This example corresponds to a data monitoring committee's meeting schedule that may happen every 6 months over a two year span. The effect of the correlation on the type I and type II error rates is examined through simulation. The simulations also examine the power over the range of response rates with a fixed toxicity rate in the alternative region and vice-versa.