A Design Process Centric Application of State Space Modeling as a Function of Communications and Cognitive Skills Assessments.

team performance;communication;cognitive skill;error modeling;team dynamics;Naval Architecture and Marine Engineering;Engineering;Naval Architecture and Marine Engineering

Strickland, Jason D.Collette, Matthew David ;

University of Michigan

关键词: team performance;    communication;    cognitive skill;    error modeling;    team dynamics;    Naval Architecture and Marine Engineering;    Engineering;    Naval Architecture and Marine Engineering;   

Others  :  https://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/handle/2027.42/116679/jdstrick_1.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y

瑞士|英语

来源: The Illinois Digital Environment for Access to Learning and Scholarship

【 摘 要 】

Humans have a reliable basic probabilistic intuition. We utilize our probabilistic intuition in many day-to-day activities such as driving. In fact any interaction that occurs in the presence of other independent actors requires some probabilistic assessment. While we are good at sorting between rare and common events, determining if these events are statistical significant is always subject to scrutiny. Quite often the bounds of statistical significance are at ends with the ;;common sense’ expectation.While our probabilistic intuition is good for first moment effects such as driving a car, throwing a football and understanding simplistic mathematical models, our probabilistic intuition fails when we need to evaluate secondary effects such as high speed turns, playing golf or understanding complex mathematical models. When our probabilistic intuition is challenged misinterpretation of results and skewed perspectives of possible outcomes will occur. The work presented in this dissertation provides a mathematical formulation that will provide a guide to when our probabilistic intuition will be challenged. This dissertation will discuss the development of the Process Failure Estimation Technique (ProFET).A multitude of potential team parameters could have been selected, interpersonal communication effectiveness and cognitive skill assessments seemed the most obvious first steps. This is due to the prolific discussion on communication and the general acceptance of the cognitive testing as an indicator of performance potential. The teams skill set must be variable with respect to time in order to accomplish the required objectives of each phase of the design process. ProFET develops a metric for the design process that is sensitive to the team composition and structure. This metric is applied to a domain that is traditionally devoid of objective scoring. With the use of ProFET more informed decisions on team structure and composition can be made at critical junctions of the design process. Specifically, ProFET looks at how variability propagates through the design activities as opposed to attempting to quantify the actual values of design activities, which is the focus of the majority of other design research.