Analysing megatrends to better shape the future of tourism

OECD

Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development

关键词: tourism;    enabling technologies;    megatrends;    strategic foresight;    visitor demand;    scenario planning;    sustainable tourism;    travel mobility;   

DOI  :  https://doi.org/10.1787/d465eb68-en

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: OECD iLibrary

【 摘 要 】

The future of tourism will be impacted by large-scale social, economic, political, environmental and technological changes, bringing new and often unseen challenges, threats and opportunities. These “megatrends” are slow to form, but once they have taken root, exercise a profound and lasting influence on human activities, processes and perceptions, including for tourism. Four megatrends are likely to have significant impacts and relevance for tourism: i) evolving visitor demand; ii) sustainable tourism growth; iii) enabling technologies; and iv) travel mobility. Exploring the multidimensional implications of these megatrends to 2040 is important to inform policy and shape the future of tourism. This Tourism Paper develops a range of plausible scenarios and potential policy responses for the megatrends mentioned above, it then examines how policy makers can better prepare for megatrends, and presents a set of guiding principles for effective strategic foresight in tourism.