A Small Global Forecasting Model

David Rae ; David Turner

Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development

关键词: macroeconomic model;    forecasting;    OECD;    international;   

DOI  :  https://doi.org/10.1787/628640803664

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: OECD iLibrary

【 摘 要 】

This paper describes the OECD’s new small global forecasting model for the three main OECD economic regions: the United States, the euro area, and Japan. The key variables – which include output, inflation, the trade balance, and import prices – are driven by monetary and fiscal policy, exchange rates, and world demand. The projections from the model are used as a starting point to help animate the early stages of the OECD’s forecasting round. The model is essentially a demand-side model with a particular focus on the impact of global linkages and the transmission of influences between regions ...