Non-Keynesian Effects of Fiscal Consolidation : An Analysis with an Estimated DSGE Model for the Hungarian Economy

Szilárd Benki ; Zoltán M. Jakabi iOECD

Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development

关键词: non-Keynesian effects;    fiscal consolidation;    DSGE model;    government expenditure;    taxation;   

DOI  :  https://doi.org/10.1787/5k9d195t38mv-en

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: OECD iLibrary

【 摘 要 】

Using an estimated DSGE model for Hungary, the paper identifies the possible non-Keynesian channels through which a fiscal consolidation may manifest as expansionary. Simulations show that fiscal consolidation policies are typically contractionary. Nevertheless, taking into account some specific features of the Hungarian economy, there is a possibility that expansionary effects arise. These effects may take the form of a drop in interest rate risk premium or favourable balance sheet effects through the appreciation of the currency. However, the credibility of fiscal consolidation is key in achieving positive output effects. A non-credible consolidation is unlikely to expand output, regardless of the assumptions regarding the specific features of the economy, and regardless of the composition of a consolidation package.