Managing (Fiscally) Resource Windfalls : Exploring Policy Options for the Democratic Republic of Congo

Pinto-Moreira, Emmanuel

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: commodity prices;    price shocks;    sovereign wealth fund;    DSGE model;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-7837
RP-ID  :  WPS7837

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

How should resource-dependent countriesrespond (fiscally) to resource price volatility? This notestudies what determines revenue allocation between a"spend today" strategy and a "save now-spendtomorrow" approach in the context of the DemocraticRepublic of Congo. It uses a three-sector model in whichpublic infrastructure investment has tangible benefits forprivate production and investment while also being subjectto absorption constraints. The optimal allocation rulebetween spending today and asset accumulation is calibratedby minimizing a social loss function defined in terms ofhousehold welfare (measured by consumption volatility) andmacroeconomic volatility (measured in terms of fiscalvolatility only, or a composite measure involving realexchange rate volatility). The results indicate that, ifproperly managed, a sovereign fund could contributesignificantly to macroeconomic stability in the DemocraticRepublic of Congo.