A Simple Fiscal Stress Testing Model : Case Studies of Austrian, Czech and German Economies

Ondra Kameniki ; Zdenek Tumai ; David Vavrai ; Zuzana Smidovaii iOGResearchiiOECD

Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development

关键词: debt consolidation;    Central Europe;    structural deficit;    fiscal policy;   

DOI  :  https://doi.org/10.1787/5k43nxm8hfvf-en

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: OECD iLibrary

【 摘 要 】

This paper develops a simple model-based framework for stress testing fiscal consolidation strategies under different scenarios of future shocks. A baseline scenario assuming a gradual debt consolidation is presented and by assuming different future developments (e.g. lower potential growth) and/or model specification in terms of a fiscal rule confidence bands around the baseline are obtained. Trade-offs between costs and benefits are evaluated, in terms of cumulative output loss and primary surpluses, as well as political difficulty of fiscal strategies and risk of failed consolidation. The model is applied to Austria, Czech Republic and Germany. This working paper relates to the 2013 OECD Economic Surveys of Austria, Czech Republic and Germany. (www.oecd.org/eco/surveys)