Belarus Macroeconomic Update : Achieving Stability and Growth

World Bank

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: economic growth;    economic outlook;    structural reforms;    fiscal policy;    potash;   

RP-ID  :  111973

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

This note assesses recent macroeconomicdevelopments in Belarus and presents a medium-term economicoutlook for 2013-2016 in three scenarios. These scenariosare sensitive to underlying assumptions and are provided toillustrate the main macroeconomic policy choices, availableto Belarus. The first scenario (baseline scenario) assumesthat the authorities continue macroeconomic policies of thepast year, with alternating phases of policy loosening andtightening, motivated by attempts to balance growth andstability. The second scenario (expansionary scenario)assumes that the authorities pursue more aggressiveexpansionary policies (compared to the baseline scenario) toboost growth in the short term. Prioritizing growth at theexpense of stability will reignite macroeconomicimbalances.The third scenario (sustainable growth scenario)assumes that the authorities put in place policies thatensure macroeconomic stability and provide a basis forsustainable growth. This includes a policy framework that(i) maintains the flexible exchange rate regime; (ii)sustains tight monetary policy, namely containing creditgrowth, including under government directed lending programsto contain inflation and real exchange rate appreciation;(iii) balances wage growth so that it does not exceedproductivity growth; (iv) maintains tight fiscal policy anda balanced budget over the medium term. These threescenarios highlight the main macroeconomic trade-offs thatBelarus is facing in the current environment. This note isorganized as follows: Section one highlights recentmacroeconomic trends; Section two provides the threemacroeconomic scenarios; and Section three provides theBank’s recommendations for macroeconomic and structuralpolicies. Annex one outlines the structural modernizationagenda that could support sustainable medium term growth.Annex two provides detailed assumptions, underlying thethree scenarios. Annex three presents the results of simplesensitivity analysis of the potential impact of pricedeclines in potash fertilizer.