Kyrgyz Republic Economic Update, Spring 2016 : Policy Challenges in a Difficult Environment

World Bank Group

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: economic growth;    economic outlook;    debt burden;    balance of payments;    fiscal policy;   

RP-ID  :  107178

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

The Kyrgyz economy has remainedresilient in the face of continued significant external headwinds in 2015, but sources of vulnerability haveincreased.While overall Gross Domestic Product (GDP)growthis estimated to have slowed to 3.5 percent in 2015, thisdeceleration was mostly on accountof lower gold production.Non-gold output growth remained robust at 4.5 percent(essentiallyunchanged from 2014), although with significantshifts in drivers. The policy stance was broadlyappropriate.Looking forward to 2016 and beyond, economicactivity is expected to slow down,with significant downsiderisks.With gold production expected to decline in comingyears, andagricultural output growth returning to historicalaverages, overall growth is projected to moderate to 3.4percent and 3.1 percent in 2016 and 2017 respectively. Forpublic policy, the main challenge will be to reconcile theobjective of supporting economic activity with principles ofprudent management.Indeed, while the Kyrgyz Republic’s debtpath remains sustainable, there are good reasons to beconcerned over risks of debt distress. The Special Focussection of this Economic Update analyzes the features of theKyrgyz Republic’s public debt and explains the factorsbehindthe recent deterioration of the debt sustainabilityoutlook. It concludes by pointing out some of the policysteps that ought to be taken in response.