Integrated Assessment of Climate Change Impacts : Conceptual Frameworks, Modelling Approaches and Research Needs

Ian Sue Wingi ; Elisa Lanziii iBoston UniversityiiOECD

Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development

关键词: climate change;    adaptation;    integrated assessment modelling;   

DOI  :  https://doi.org/10.1787/5jz2qcjsrvzx-en

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: OECD iLibrary

【 摘 要 】

This paper presents a framework to include feedbacks from climate impacts on the economy in integrated assessment models. The proposed framework uses a production function approach, which links climate impacts to key variables and parameters used in the specification of economic activity. The key endpoints within climate impact categories are linked to the relevant connections for a range of sectors in the economy. The paper pays particular attention to the challenges of distinguishing between damages and the costs of adapting to climate change. The paper also reviews existing studies and available data that can be used to establish linkages between climate impacts and key variables within economic models. There is considerable heterogeneity across the timing and geographic distribution of changes in climatic variables, the consequent changes in key physical and biogeochemical “endpoints” that might occur over time and space, and the magnitude of the resulting damages that these effects are likely to impose on the range of sectors in the economy. The review underlines the uncertainty involved in each of these dimensions and the research needs for the future.