Mali has demographic characteristicssimilar to most sub-Saharan African countries, except forthose of Southern Africa. The population of Mali is veryyoung: in 1998, 46.3 percent of the population was under 15years of age. Whereas mortality, especially infant and childmortality, has decreased rapidly, fertility has remainedhigh over the past decades, equaling 6.6 children per womanon average. As a result, the rate of demographic growth hasincreased significantly over the last decades. Today, thenatural population growth rate is estimated at 3.3 percentper year (it will take 21 years for the population todouble). International migration somewhat slows down thisgrowth, and the net population growth rate is estimated at 3percent per year, which leads to a doubling of thepopulation in 23 years. This study is presented in threechapters. The first chapter shows the present situation ofthe population of Mali and its prospects for the future.This chapter evaluates available demographic data, analyzesthe size, geographic distribution as well as the structureand rate of growth of the population, includinginternational migrations. It also presents populationprojections for the years 2005 to 2035, based on slow orrapid fertility decline scenarios. Chapter two is dedicatedto the future implications of these demographic trends. Itfirst addresses the development of human capital(demographic investment), especially in education andhealth. It then examines the macro-economic consequences ofdemographic growth for Mali. Finally, it briefly analyzesother consequences of the high population growth, in termsof increasing population density, agriculture, nutrition,urbanization, environmental degradation, and maternal andchild health. The last chapter assesses the populationpolicies in Mali and what is needed to set into motion adecline in fertility and presents practical recommendations.
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