Toward Climate-Resilient Development in Nigeria

Cervigni, Raffaello ; Valentini, Riccardo ; Santini, Monia

Washington, DC:World Bank

关键词: ACTION ON CLIMATE CHANGE;    ADVERSE IMPACTS;    ADVERSE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE;    AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT;    AGRICULTURAL RESEARCH;   

DOI  :  10.1596/978-0-8213-9923-1
RP-ID  :  78262

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

This book analyzes the risks toNigeria's development prospects that climate changeposes to agriculture, livestock, and water management. Thesesectors were chosen because they are central to achievingthe growth, livelihood, and environmental objectives ofVision 20: 2020; and because they are already vulnerable tocurrent climate variability. Since other sectors might alsobe affected, the findings of this research providelower-bound estimates of overall climate change impacts.Agriculture accounts for about 40 percent of Nigeria'sGross Domestic product (GDP) and employs 70 percent of itspeople. Because virtually all production is rain-fed,agriculture is highly vulnerable to weather swings. Italerts us that increases in temperature, coupled withchanges in precipitation patterns and hydrological regimes,can only exacerbate existing vulnerabilities. The bookproposes 10 practical short-term priority actions, as wellas complementary longer-term initiatives, that could help tomitigate the threat to vision 20: 2020 that climate changeposes. Nigeria's vision can become a reality if thecountry moves promptly to become more climate-resilient.Climate variability is also undermining Nigeria'sefforts to achieve energy security. Though dominated bythermal power, the country's energy mix is complementedby hydropower, which accounts for one-third of grid supply.Because dams are poorly maintained, current variability inrainfall results in power outages that affect bothNigeria's energy security and its growth potential. Inparticular, climate models converge in projecting that bymid-century water flows will increase for almost half thecountry, decrease in 10 percent of the country, and beuncertain over one-third of Nigeria's surface. Theoverall feasibility of Nigeria's hydropower potentialis not in question. On grounds of energy diversification andlow carbon co-benefits, exploiting the entire 12 gigawatts(GW) of hydropower potential should be considered. Nigeriahas a number of actions and policy choices it might considerfor building up its ability to achieve climate-resilient development.