Climate Change, Soil Salinity, and the Economics of High-Yield Rice Production in Coastal Bangladesh

Dasgupta, Susmita ; Hossain, Md. Moqbul ; Huq, Mainul ; Wheeler, David

World Bank Group, Washington, DC

关键词: ADVERSE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE;    AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION;    AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES;    AQUACULTURE;    BASIN;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-7140
RP-ID  :  WPS7140

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

It is a virtual certainty that sea-levelrise will continue throughout the century and beyond 2100even if greenhouse gas emissions are stabilized in the nearfuture. Understanding the economic impacts of salinityintrusion thus is essential for planning adaptation inlow-lying coastal areas around the world. This paperpresents a case study in Bangladesh on how climate changeleads to the spread of soil salinity and the impact onagricultural production in the coastal region. The analysisis conducted in two stages. The first stage predicts futuresoil salinity for 69 subdistricts, taking into accountclimate-induced changes in river salinity, temperature, andrainfall by 2050. The second stage uses econometric analysisto predict the impact of climate-induced increases in soilsalinity on the output and price of high-yielding-varietyrice. The findings indicate output declines of 15.6 percentin nine subdistricts where soil salinity will exceed 4deciSiemens per meter before 2050. Without newly developedcoping strategies, the predicted changes will producesignificant income declines from high-yielding-variety riceproduction in many areas, including a 10.5 percent loss inBarisal region and a 7.5 percent loss in Chittagong region.