The Malagasy population has undergone asevere political and economic crisis since 2009, whoseimpact on children's enrollment is little documented.The stagnation of primary school enrollment in a context ofsustained demographic growth points to a rapid deteriorationin the access to basic education services. The objective ofthis study is thus to evaluate the effects of the currentcrisis on household education choices, to orient educationpolicy decisions over the short and medium term. The studycombines recent available qualitative and quantitative data,to propose a set of assumptions on the effects of the crisisand its impact channels on education. Short of being able tocarry out a full impact analysis of the crisis, due to itsnational coverage, the following data and sources areanalyzed in detail to better document its effects: 1)monetary and budget data; 2) education statistics from theMinistry of Education (MEN); 3) the last two householdsurveys (EPM), of 2005 and 2010; 4) a follow-up survey ofthe pupils, households and schools of the districts ofAmboasary and Betioky in the south of Madagascar, carriedout in 2012 on the basis of an original pre-crisis survey,of 2009; and 5) workshops with the main sector players. Theconceptual framework approaches the determinants ofhousehold education choices and behavior from theperspective of education supply and demand. The crossedimpact of supply and demand-side factors enables theidentification of four channels of impact of the crisis onhousehold education choices: direct and indirect educationcosts, household income and access to loans, the perceivedreturn on investment in education and the opportunity costsof schooling. Finally, the effects of a certain number ofpupil and household characteristics on school access aredetermined through econometric analyses that enable theevaluation of the relevance of each channel.
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