A Ricardian Analysis of the Impact of Climate Change on African Cropland

Kurukulasuriya, Pradeep ; Mendelsohn, Robert

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: AGRICULTURAL LAND;    AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION;    AGRICULTURE;    ARABLE LAND;    CARBON;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-4305
RP-ID  :  WPS4305

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

This study examines the impact ofclimate change on cropland in Africa. It is based on asurvey of more than 9,000 farmers in 11 countries: BurkinaFaso, Cameroon, Egypt, Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya, Niger,Senegal, South Africa, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. The study usesa Ricardian cross-sectional approach in which net revenue isregressed on climate, water flow, soil, and economicvariables. The results show that net revenues fall asprecipitation falls or as temperatures warm across all thesurveyed farms. In addition to examining all farms together,the study examined dryland and irrigated farms separately.Dryland farms are especially climate sensitive. Irrigatedfarms have a positive immediate response to warming becausethey are located in relatively cool parts of Africa. Thestudy also examined some simple climate scenarios to see howAfrica would respond to climate change. These uniformscenarios assume that only one aspect of climate changes andthe change is uniform across all of Africa. In addition, thestudy examined three climate change scenarios fromAtmospheric Oceanic General Circulation Models. Thesescenarios predicted changes in climate in each country overtime. Not all countries are equally vulnerable to climatechange. First, the climate scenarios predict differenttemperature and precipitation changes in each country.Second, it is also important whether a country is alreadyhot and dry. Third, the extent to which farms are irrigatedis also important.