Uncertainty and Climate Variability in the Design and Operation of Water Resources Projects : Examples and Case Studies

Rodrí ; guez-Iturbe, Ignacio ; Valdé ; s, Juan B.

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: AGRICULTURE;    ANNUAL PRECIPITATION;    ANNUAL RAINFALL;    ANNUAL VARIATIONS;    ANOXIC CONDITIONS;   

RP-ID  :  78255

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

There are two common problems in floodhydrology: 1) estimate the return period for a given flood;and 2) estimate the flood for a given return period. Acommonly used procedure to solve these problems is to fit aprobability density function such as the Gumbel, Pearsontype three or the generalized extreme value distributions tothe historical data. The Pearson probability distributionwas named after the statistician Pearson, it is also calledthe three-parameter gamma distribution. The Mann-Kendalltest is a non-parametric test for identifying trends in timeseries data. The test compares the relative magnitudes ofsample data rather than the data values them. One benefit ofthis test is that the data need not conform to anyparticular distribution. The data values are evaluated as anordered time series. Each data value is compared to allsubsequent data values. There are basically two approachesto downscale coupled climate model projections: statisticaland dynamic downscaling.