Cyclical Patterns in Government Health Expenditures between 1995 and 2010 : Are Countries Graduating from the Procyclical Trap or Falling Back?

Velenyi, Edit V. ; Smitz, Marc F.

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: ALLOCATION OF RESOURCES;    ANALYTICAL CAPACITY;    ARTICLE;    AUTOMATIC STABILIZER;    AUTOMATIC STABILIZERS;   

RP-ID  :  87885

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

The 2008-09 global economic crises haveshown that no country is immune to external challenges. Whenpolicy controls are missing or not used efficiently, crisescan reverse progress even in advanced economies. Thisunexpected outcome has increased concerns about the abilityof governments in developing countries to manage downturns.The question is whether current and future crises willreinforce the procyclical responses or whether thesegovernments will be able to escape the procyclical trap. Inthe fiscal domain, countercyclical trends in developingcountries are promising. Over the last decade, about a thirdof the developing world has been able to escape theprocyclicality trap. Yet, little is known about the evidenceon the cyclical patterns of government health spending. Thisdescriptive analysis, which covers 183 countries between1995 and 2010, provides empirical evidence on thecyclicality of government health expenditures, using paneldata from a global macro database, the fiscal healthdatabase. The objective is to propose user-friendlydiagnostic approaches in this area that can be easilyreplicated and updated to inform technical discussions andpolicy making.