Strengthening Recovery in Central and Eastern Europe : EU11 Regular Economic Report

World Bank

Washington, DC

关键词: AGRICULTURE;    ASSET MANAGEMENT;    ASSET QUALITY;    ASSET-BACKED SECURITIES;    BALANCE SHEET;   

RP-ID  :  89427

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

Economic growth is expected to almostdouble in EU11 (Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, the CzechRepublic, Hungary, Poland, the Slovak Republic, Bulgaria,Croatia, Romania and Slovenia) in 2014, and continue tostrengthen in 2015. The northern countries of Estonia,Latvia, Lithuania will continue to be amongst the fastestgrowing countries in the EU, despite the negative impact offalling external demand as growth slows in their maintrading partners. Croatia is the only country expected toremain in recession, for a sixth consecutive year, in 2014,as declining domestic demand continues to outweigh exportgrowth. Recovery is expected to be gradual, with growth notreaching pre-crisis rates for some time. Inflation rates areexpected to remain below targets during 2014, with somecountries already experiencing deflation, but as globalcommodity prices stabilize, activity increases and outputgaps diminish, inflation is expected to gradually rise.Fiscal consolidation will continue in 2014 and 2015, but ata more gradual pace than in the previous years. Economicgrowth forecasts in the EU11 are subject to multiple risks,mainly on the downside, as the global financial situationremains fragile. Rising global interest rates coupled withvolatile capital markets, or an extended period of regionalgeopolitical tensions could slow the European recovery andconstrain exports, credit and investment in EU11. Whilelabor market conditions have started to improve, the pace ofjob creation and reduction in unemployment rates are likelyto be gradual. Many of the economies in the EU11 face thetwin challenge of high youth unemployment and rapidly agingpopulations. EU11 countries also struggle with equipping thenext generation with the skills necessary to achieve theirfull potential e.g. in literacy, math and science. Thepersistence of large numbers of inactive and unemployedyouth therefore poses unique risks of creating a "lostgeneration" of workers. Understanding the cyclical andstructural nature of youth unemployment is thereforeimportant to mitigate the potentially damaging cycle betweenyouth unemployment and broader economic growth and productivity.