Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change : Samoa

World Bank

Washington, DC

关键词: ADAPTATION ACTIONS;    ADAPTATION ACTIVITIES;    ADAPTATION BENEFITS;    ADAPTATION COSTS;    ADAPTATION MEASURE;   

RP-ID  :  70271

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

Over the last two decades Samoa hassuffered major damage from two cyclones in 1990-91, minordamage from a third cyclone in 2004, and an earthquaketsunami in 2009. Changes in the scale and impact of thesetypes of natural disasters are likely to be importantconsequences of climate change for the country because theincreases in sea level and in average sea surfacetemperatures will increase theintensity and damagefrom major storms. Other potential impacts are linked tochanges in the weather patterns associated with El NiñoSouthern Oscillation (ENSO) events. The primary concernfocuses on the impact on agriculture, especially in periodsof lower precipitation following strong El Niñoepisodes.This study examines the consequences ofan increase in average temperatures of up to 1°C by 2050 andup to 2.75°C by 2100 for the frequency and intensity ofmajor cyclones that hit the islands. Estimates of theeconomic damage caused by storms in the past have been usedto calibrate a damage function that yields an estimatedincrease in the expected value of economic damage as thepeak wind speeds for storms with return periods of 10, 50,or 100 years rise over time. In this framework the keyelement of adaptation is to ensure that buildings and otherassets are designed to standards that enable them to copewith the greater wind stresses and more intenseprecipitation associated with worse storms.