Trade Performance and Regional Integration of the CIS Countries

Freinkman, Lev ; Polyakov, Evgeny ; Revenco, Carolina

Washington, DC:World Bank

关键词: TRADE PERFORMANCE;    FREE TRADE AGREEMENTS;    TRANSIT;    IMPORTS;    EMPLOYMENT;   

DOI  :  10.1596/0-8213-5896-0
RP-ID  :  29791

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

The study provides a detailedquantitative analysis, based on standard econometric models,of the trends and the configuration of trade of the CIScountries, with an emphasis on its low income members. Italso contains an analysis of the CIS countries' tradepotential and its realization in a comparative perspective,as well as examination of the nature of the existing CISintra-bloc trade. The study revealed no evidence that theCIS countries as a group underperform significantly in termsof either trade openness or export levels when compared tothe countries of similar per capita GDP and population size.This means, however, that the low-income economies in theCIS (CIS-7) have been performing on average just marginallybetter than other low-income countries and that, overall,they have been falling behind the countries that benefitmost from globalization. Overall, progress in the trade areawas slower in the CIS-7 countries than in the higher incomeCIS members. This is reflected in: (i) lower overall exportlevels and slower export growth in the second half of the1990s; (ii) higher trade deficits; (iii) lower share ofmanufacturing exports; (iv) incomplete re-orientation oftrade flows from the CIS to global markets; and (v) lowerincidence of intra-industry trade. The study found that theCIS free trade area is, on balance, a beneficial,trade-facilitating bloc. It features a free trade regime,agreements on mutual recognition of standards, andnon-restrictive rules of origin. There is no evidence so farthat the CIS integration is of the "South-South"type and thus may be harmful for some of its members.However, the potential benefits of CIS trade integrationremain badly underutilized. The study suggests severaldirections for strengthening the legal and administrativeframework for intra-CIS trade arrangements.