Climate Change, Groundwater Salinization and Road Maintenance Costs in Coastal Bangladesh

Dasgupta, Susmita ; Hossain, Md. Moqbul ; Huq, Mainul ; Wheeler, David

World Bank Group, Washington, DC

关键词: AGGREGATES;    AQUACULTURE;    BASIN;    BLISTERING;    CHLORIDE;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-7147
RP-ID  :  WPS7147

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

The potentially-adverse impact ofsalinity on paved roads is well-established in theengineering literature. The problem seems destined to grow,as climate-related changes in sea level and riverine flowsdrive future increases in groundwater salinity. However,data scarcity has prevented systematic analysis for poorcountries. This paper assesses the impact of groundwatersalinity on road maintenance expenditures in the coastalregion of Bangladesh. The assessment draws on new panelmeasures of salinity from 41 stations in coastal Bangladesh,and road maintenance expenditures, income, road networklength, and road surfaces from 20 coastal municipalities. Ina model relating maintenance expenditure for paved roads togroundwater salinity, municipal income, and road networklength, large and significant effects are found forsalinity. The regression model is used to predict the effectof within-sample salinity variation on road maintenanceexpenditure share, holding municipal income and road lengthconstant at sample mean values. Increasing salinity from itssample minimum to its sample maximum increases the predictedroad maintenance expenditure share by 252 percent. Theimplied welfare impact may also be substantial, particularlyfor poor households, if diversion of expenditures to roadmaintenance reduces support for community sanitation,health, and other infrastructure related programs.