Distributional Implications of Climate Change in India

Jacoby, Hanan ; Rabassa, Mariano ; Skoufias, Emmanuel

关键词: ACCESS TO MARKETS;    ADJUSTMENT TO CLIMATE CHANGE;    AGRICULTURAL ACTIVITIES;    AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS;    AGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-5623
RP-ID  :  WPS5623

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

Global warming is expected to heavilyimpact agriculture, the dominant source of livelihood forthe world's poor. Yet, little is known about thedistributional implications of climate change at thesub-national level. Using a simple comparative staticsframework, this paper analyzes how changes in the prices ofland, labor, and food induced by modest temperatureincreases over the next three decades will affecthousehold-level welfare in India. The authors predict asubstantial fall in agricultural productivity, even allowingfor farmer adaptation. Yet, this decline will not translateinto a sharp drop in consumption for the majority of ruralhouseholds, who derive their income largely from wageemployment. Overall, the welfare costs of climate changefall disproportionately on the poor. This is true in urbanas well as in rural areas, but, in the latter sector onlyafter accounting for the effects of rising world cerealprices. Adaptation appears to primarily benefit thenon-poor, since they own the lion's share ofagricultural land. The results suggest that poverty in Indiawill be roughly 3-4 percentage points higher after thirtyyears of rising temperatures than it would have been hadthis warming not occurred.