Capital Will Not Become More Expensive as the World Ages

Bussolo, Maurizio ; Lim, Jamus Jerome ; Maliszewska, Maryla ; Timmer, Hans

World Bank Group, Washington, DC

关键词: ACCELERATOR;    ACCESS TO CREDIT;    ACCOUNTING;    AFFILIATED ORGANIZATIONS;    AGRICULTURAL SECTOR;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-6989
RP-ID  :  WPS6989

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

Aging of populations and convergencebetween developed and developing countries in per capitaincomes are shaping the evolution of saving, investment,capital flows, and, in particular, the cost of capital. Whenconsidering these trends, the existing literature argues foreither continued, low interest rates, or sharply risingones. This paper presents an alternative view: modest risesin interest rates, which result from a combination ofincreases in the global weight of high-saving developingeconomies (limiting declines in global saving), anddecelerations in the rate of growth in developing countries(constraining upward pressure in global investment). For themajority of countries, slowing capital demand resulting fromdecelerating growth, coupled with structural changes thatinfluence its attractiveness as a destination for capital,moderate increases in interest rates. Changes in keyassumptions do not alter this view. More specifically, thesmall rise in interest rates persists even in a scenariowhere growth in developing countries decelerates moreslowly, or when elasticities governing the behavior ofsaving and investment are varied.