How Much War Will We See? Estimating the Incidence of Civil War in 161 Countries

Elbadawi, Ibrahim ; Sambanis, Nicholas

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: ARMIES;    ARMY;    ASSET INEQUALITY;    CIVIL WAR;    CIVIL WAR DATA;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-2533
RP-ID  :  WPS2533

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

Quantitative studies of civil war havefocused either on war's onset, or its termination,producing important insights into these end points of theprocess. The authors complement these studies by studyinghow much war we are likely to observe in any given period.To answer this question, they combine recent advances in thetheory of civil war initiation, and duration, and, developthe concept of war incidence, denoting th probability ofobserving an event of civil war in any given period. Theytest theories of war initiation, and duration against thisnew concept, using a five-year panel data set for 161countries. Their analysis of the incidence of warcorroborates most of the results of earlier studies,enriching those results by highlighting the significance ofsocio-ppolitical variables as determinants of the risk ofcivil war. Their findings: 1) Steps toward advancingpolitical liberalization, or economic development reduce therisk of civil war, whatever the degree of ethno-linguisticfractionalization in a society. 2) This effect is amplifiedin polarized societies. The probability of civil war islower in very homogeneous societies, and (less so) in morediverse societies. 3) In polarized societies, the risk ofcivil war can be reduced by political, rather than economicliberalization. At high levels of political freedom, ethnicdiversity - even polarization - has a minimal impact on therisk of civil war. 4) Economic diversification that wouldreduce a country's reliance on primary exports wouldalso reduce the risk of civil wars, especially in polarizedsocieties. 5) In strategies for preventing civil war,political liberalization should be a higher priority thaneconomic development, but the best possible results wouldcombine political reform, economic diversification, andpoverty reduction.