Greed and Grievance in Civil War

Collier, Paul ; Hoeffler, Anke

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: ARMIES;    ARMS;    ARMS RACE;    BOUNDARIES;    CAUSE OF CONFLICT;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-2355
RP-ID  :  WPS2355

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

The authors compare two contrastingmotivations for rebellion: greed and grievance. Mostrebellions are ostensibly in pursuit of a cause, supportedby a narrative of grievance. But since grievance assuagementthrough rebellion is a public good that a government willnot supply, economists predict such rebellions would berare. Empirically, many rebellions appear to be linked tothe capture of resources (such as diamonds in Angola, andSierra Leone, drugs in Colombia, and timber in Cambodia).The authors set up a simple rational choice model ofgreed-rebellion, and contrasts its predictions with those ofa simple grievance model. Some countries return to conflictrepeatedly. Are they conflict-prone, or is there a feedbackeffect whereby conflict generates grievance, which in turngenerates further conflict? The authors show why such afeedback effect might be present in both greed-motivated andgrievance rebellions. The authors' results contrastwith conventional beliefs, about the causes of conflict. Astylized version of conventional beliefs would be thatgrievance begets conflict, which begets grievance, whichbegets further conflict. With such a model, the only pointat which to intervene is to reduce the level of objectivegrievance. The authors' model suggests that whatactually happens is that opportunities for predation(controlling primary commodity exports) cause conflict, andthe grievances this generates induce diasporas to financefurther conflict. The point of policy intervention here isto reduce the absolute, and relative attraction of primarycommodity predation, and to reduce the ability of diasporasto fund rebel movements.