Crisis and Contagion in East Asia : Nine Lessons

Kawai, Masahiro ; Newfarmer, Richard ; Schmukler, Sergio

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: ADB;    AGGREGATE DEMAND;    ASSET PRICE BUBBLES;    ASSETS;    BALANCE OF PAYMENTS;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-2610
RP-ID  :  WPS2610

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

The authors investigate the origins ofthe East Asian crisis and its contagion, examine thechannels of contagion, and discuss policyrecommendationsThey make detailed recommendations in thecontext of nine general lessons learned from the East Asiancrisis. 1) Preventing crises and contagion: avoid largecurrent account deficits financed through short-term privatecapital inflows. Aggressively regulate and supervisefinancial systems to ensure that banks and nonbank financialinstitutions manage risks prudently. Put in place incentivesfor sound corporate finance to prevent high leverage ratiosand overreliance on foreign borrowing. 2) Managing crisesand contagion: In the context of sound policies, mobilizetimely external liquidity of sufficient magnitude to restoremarket confidence. At times of crisis, "bail in"private foreign creditors. When official resources are toolimited for the magnitude of the crisis or contagion, andwhen private creditors are not amenable to coordination,some involuntary private involvement may be needed too. Keepin mind that there is no one-size-fits-all monetary andfiscal stance for responding to crises and contagion. 3)Resolving the systemic consequences of crises and contagion.Move swiftly to establish domestic and internationalmechanisms for dealing with the assets and liabilities onnonviolable banks and corporations. Cushion the effects ofcrisis on low-income groups through social policies toameliorate the inevitable social tensions associated withadjustment. 4) Developing an effective regional financialarchitecture. Improve mechanisms for preventing, managing,and resolving crises and contagion at the regional level inways consistent with improvements in the global financial architecture.