Credit Growth in Emerging Europe : A Cause for Stability Concerns?

Sirtaine, Sophie ; Skamnelos, Ilias

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: ACCOUNTING;    ACCOUNTING STANDARDS;    AFFILIATED ORGANIZATIONS;    AGGREGATE DEMAND;    ASSET PRICE BUBBLES;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-4281
RP-ID  :  WPS4281

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

High credit growth in Emerging Europe,generally considered a sign of catching-up with the"old" Europe, has begun receiving considerableattention among investors and policymakers alike. Givenheightened global risks and the demands under the EuropeanUnion accession process, the need to better understand thishigh credit growth's drivers, riskiness, and thepossible macroeconomic and financial stability consequencesis strong. The authors adopt a holistic approach inreviewing the rapid credit growth experienced in the region,examining macroeconomic, financial sector, corporate sector,and asset market consequences and possible vulnerabilities.They consider three possible scenarios-a catching-up witholder European countries, a soft landing as experienced byPortugal in the early 2000s, and a hard landing asexperienced by Asia in 1997.