Regional Integration and Industrial Growth among Developing Countries : The Case of Three ASEAN Members

Madani, Dorsati H.

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: ANDEAN PACT;    AVERAGE TARIFF;    BUSINESS CYCLE;    CAPITAL STOCK;    COAL;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-2697
RP-ID  :  WPS2697

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

Has the revival of the Association ofSoutheast Asian Nations (ASEAN) in the early 1990s affectedthe industrial growth of Indonesia, Malaysia, and thePhilippines? The author uses two mechanisms to capture thispotential impact: scale effects, and intermediate importsvariety. She performs the analysis on twenty two industries(at the three-digit level of the International StandardIndustrial Classification) over the period 1971-95. Theresults show significant heterogeneity in industry-levelreturns to scale. Moreover, the three ASEAN members havevery small, mostly negative cross-industry scale effects. Asa result, they may not achieve large, or across-the-boardgains from their regional arrangement through scale effects.The author finds unexpected results with respect to the roleof intermediate imports variety in industrial growth. Shefinds no support for the hypothesis that non-regional (restof the world) suppliers, and goods variety have a positiveeffect on ASEAN industries through the channel of importedintermediate inputs. The regional variety measure, however,seems to have a positive effect on the output growth of ahandful of industries. This result seems due to the factthat these countries have long had a strong intra-regional,and intra-industry trade, whose history predates, andoutweighs the ASEAN revival.