Distinguishing between Observationally Equivalent Theories of Crises

Shankar, Rashmi

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: ADVERSE SELECTION;    ASSETS;    ASYMMETRIC INFORMATION;    BALANCE OF PAYMENTS;    BALANCE SHEET;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-2926
RP-ID  :  WPS2926

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

The objective of this paper is toempirically test across alternative, apparentlyobservationally equivalent theories of currency crises.Theories of crises are often difficult to distinguish fromeach other based on the behavior of commonly usedpredictors. Using a comprehensive data set on gross externalassets and liabilities for 167 countries created by theWorld Bank's Latin America and the Caribbean Region andthe Development Research Group, this study is able to make asignificant move toward redressing this shortcoming. Itfocuses on identifying potential crisis predictors, as wellas testing the validity of the distinct transmissionmechanisms implied by various theories of currency crisis.Evidence is presented in support of insurance-based models,suggesting that proxies for contingent liabilityaccumulation are effective crisis predictors.