High Consumption Volatility : The Impact of Natural Disasters?

Auffret, Philippe

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION;    AGRICULTURE;    ARABLE LAND;    AVERAGE CONSUMPTION;    AVERAGE GROWTH;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-2962
RP-ID  :  WPS2962

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

A history of repeated external anddomestic shocks has made economic insecurity a major concernacross the Caribbean region. Of particular concern to allhouseholds, especially the poorest segments of thepopulation, is the exposure to shocks that are generated bycatastrophic events or natural disasters. The author showsthat despite high consumption growth, the Caribbean regionsuffers from a high volatility of consumption that decreaseshousehold welfare. After presenting some empirical evidencethat consumption volatility is higher in the Caribbeanregion than in the rest of the world, he makes someempirically testable inferences that help explainconsumption volatility. The author develops a conceptualframework for analyzing the effects of catastrophic eventson household and aggregate welfare. According to thisframework, the volatility of consumption comes fromproduction shocks that are transformed into consumptionshocks mostly because of underdeveloped or ineffectiverisk-management mechanisms. Auffret conducts an empiricalanalysis of the impact of catastrophic events on 16countries (6 from the Caribbean region and 10 from LatinAmerica) from 1970-99 and shows that catastrophic eventslead to: 1) A substantial decline in the growth of output.2) A substantial decline in the growth of investment. 3) Amore moderate decline in consumption growth (most of thedecline is in private consumption, while public consumptiondeclines moderately. 4) A worsening of the current accountof the balance of payments.