Policy Options for Meeting the Millennium Development Goals in Brazil : Can Micro-Simulations Help?

Ferreira, Francisco H.G. ; Leite, Phillippe George

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: DEVELOPMENT POLICY;    SIMULATION;    SIMULATION METHODS;    LABOR MARKET CHARACTERISTICS;    LABOR MARKET ECONOMETRIC MODELS;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-2975
RP-ID  :  WPS2975

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

The authors investigate whethermicro-simulation techniques can shed light on the types ofpolicies that should be adopted by countries wishing to meettheir Millennium Development Goals. They compare twofamilies of micro-simulations. The first family ofmicro-simulations decomposes required poverty changes into achange in the mean and a reduction in inequality. Althoughit highlights the importance of inequality reduction, itappears to be too general to be of much use forpolicymaking. The second family of micro-simulations isbased on a richer model of behavior in the labor markets. Itpoints to the importance of combining different policyoptions, such as educational expansion and targetedconditional redistribution schemes, to ensure that thepoorest people in society are successfully reached. But theabsence of market equilibria in these statistical models, aswell as the strong stability assumptions which are implicitin their use, argue for extreme caution in their interpretation.