Contracting Models of the Phillips Curve : Empirical Estimates for Middle-Income Countries

Agenor, Pierre-Richard ; Bayraktar, Nihal

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: BUSINESS CYCLES;    CENTRAL BANK;    CONSUMER PRICE INDEX;    CONSUMER PRICES;    COST FUNCTIONS;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-3139
RP-ID  :  WPS3139

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

This paper provides empirical estimatesof contracting models of the Phillips curve for fourmiddle-income developing economies-Chile, the Republic ofKorea, the Philippines, and Turkey. Following an analyticalreview, models with both one lead and one lag, and two lagsand three leads, are then estimated using Generalized Methodof Moments (GMM) techniques. The results indicate that forboth Chile and Turkey past and future inflation are of aboutthe same magnitude in affecting current inflation. In Koreapast inflation has a larger impact on inflation, whereas inthe Philippines it is future inflation that plays a largerrole. Homogeneity restrictions are satisfied for Korea andTurkey, but not for Chile and the Philippines.