Trade, Foreign Exchange, and Energy Policies in the Islamic Republic of Iran : Reform Agenda, Economic Implications, and Impact on the Poor

Jensen, Jesper ; Tarr, David

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES;    AGRICULTURE;    APPLIED TARIFF;    AVERAGE TARIFF;    BENCHMARK;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-2768
RP-ID  :  WPS2768

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

The Islamic Republic of Iran hascommitted itself to substantial trade and market reform inits Third Five-Year Development Plan. It started out withnontariff barriers on all products, a dual exchange rateregime with the market rate more than four times theofficial rate, and domestic energy subsidies equal to about90 percent of the cost of energy products. Many of thesepolicies were justified as helping the poor. To analyze theeffect of the reforms, separately and together, the authorsdevelop a multisector computable general equilibrium modelwith 10 rural and 10 urban households. They find that thecombined reforms could generate welfare gains equal to about50 percent of aggregate consumer income. These gains reflectthe large initial distortions-for example, energy subsidiesequal to about 18 percent of GDP, and retail energy pricesequal to about 10 percent of world market prices.Separately, trade reform would lead to gains of about 5percent of income, exchange rate reform to gains of 7percent of income, and energy pricing reform to gains of 33percent of income. The authors' results show thatwell-intentioned commodity subsidy policies for the poor canhave perverse effects. Direct income payments to allhouseholds (not just the poor) would vastly increase theincomes of the poor compared with the status quo. Moreover,if the combined reforms were implemented, the poorest ruralhousehold would receive gains equal to about 290 percent ofits income, and the poorest urban household gains equal toabout 140 percent of its income.