Nigeria : Where Has All the Growth Gone?

World Bank

Washington, DC

关键词: ABSOLUTE POVERTY;    ABSOLUTE POVERTY LINE;    ACCESS TO ELECTRICITY;    ACCESS TO EMPLOYMENT;    AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION;   

RP-ID  :  78908

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

This policy note will focus on thepoverty trends in Nigeria using the National Living StandardSurvey (NLSS) 2004 and Harmonized Nigeria Living StandardSurvey (HNLSS) 2010 only. In the last decade, Nigeria hasenjoyed a stable and sustained growth in a context ofresponsible macroeconomic management, economic stability,democracy, and reform. Nonetheless, results from householdsurveys conducted during the same period seem to be at oddwith this particularly positive growth story: povertydeclined only by two percentage points between 2004 and2010. Poverty levels may be lower and poverty reductionfaster than the official estimates suggest. Simulations andsensitivity check confirm this hypothesis and call foradditional work to consolidate poverty analysis in Nigeria.An important step in this direction is increasing thecollaboration with the National Bureau of Statisticsregarding data collection and data management. There are,however, several results from this policy note that seems tostand on solid ground. First, the historical disparitiesbetween the North and the South (more specificallySouth-West) appear to have remained unchanged. Second,inequality explains part of the limited poverty reduction.Third, there is evidence of structural changes in theeconomy. Labor absorption provides interesting insights.Larger fractions of the working age population have movedout of agriculture and joined the self-employed sector. Tomake faster progress in poverty reduction, Nigeria needs agame changing strategy if substantial progress has to bemade in meeting the global goals of reducing extreme povertyto three percent in 2030.