Global Fiscal Adjustment and TradeRebalancing: Global Fiscal Adjustment and Trade Rebalancing

McKibbin, Warwick J. ; Stoeckel, Andrew B. ; Lu, YingYing

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: ACCOUNTING;    ADJUSTMENT COSTS;    ADVANCED COUNTRIES;    ADVANCED COUNTRY;    ADVANCED ECONOMIES;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-6044
RP-ID  :  WPS6044

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

The emergence of substantial fiscaldeficits and a large build up of government debt in majoradvanced economies will inevitably lead to a period offiscal consolidation in coming years. In an earlier paper,McKibbin and Stoeckel (2010) explored the effects of thisfiscal adjustment in advanced economies on the globaleconomic outlook. This paper focuses on the differencesbetween the impacts of fiscal policy in advanced versusemerging economies. In particular, the need for more fiscalspending on infrastructure in emerging economies and theneed for fiscal consolidation in advanced economies leadsnaturally to the question of what this asymmetric fiscaladjustment might do to global trade balances as well asglobal economic growth over the coming decades. Theadjustment needed in both regions is substantial and theasymmetry of the adjustment implies important consequencesfor trade and capital flows between regions as well as assetprice adjustments within and between regions.