Debiasing on a Roll : Changing Gambling Behavior through Experiential Learning

Abel, Martin ; Cole, Shawn ; Zia, Bilal

World Bank Group, Washington, DC

关键词: ABSTRACT CONCEPTS;    ABSTRACT REASONING;    ADOLESCENCE;    ADVERTISEMENT;    ADVERTISEMENTS;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-7195
RP-ID  :  WPS7195

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

This paper tests experiential learningas a debiasing tool against gambling and lottery behavior inSouth Africa. The study implemented a simple, interactivedice game that simulates worsening winning odds of rollingsixes as more dice are added to the game. The analysisexploits two levels of exogenous variation, first fromrandom assignment into the debiasing game, and second fromthe number of rolls it takes to obtain the sixes. Treatedindividuals who needed above-median number of rolls toobtain simultaneous sixes are significantly less likely thanthe control group to gamble or play the lottery in thefollowing year. The converse is true for individuals whoneeded below-median number of rolls, suggesting a perversetreatment effect among this group. The analysis also findssuggestive evidence that the debiasing affected thesensitivity to varying winning odds. Changes inentertainment utility or risk preferences cannot explainthese findings, rather the results are consistent withchanges in risk beliefs.