Output Fluctuations in Latin America : What Explains the Recent Slowdown?

Herrera, Santiago ; Perry, Guillermo ; Quintero, Neile

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: ANNUAL GROWTH;    AUTOREGRESSION;    AVERAGE LEVEL;    BENCHMARK;    BONDS;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-2333
RP-ID  :  WPS2333

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

The authors explain Latin America'sgrowth slowdown in 1998-1999. To do so, they use twocomplementary methodologies. The first aims at determininghow much of the slowdown can be explained by specificexternal factors: the terms of trade, international interestrates, spreads on external debt, capital flows, andclimatological factors (El Nino). Using quarterly GDP datafor the eight largest countries in the region, the authorsestimate a dynamic panel showing that 50-60 percent of theslowdown was due to these external factors. The secondapproach allows for effects on output by some endogeneousvariables, such as domestic real interest rates, and realexchange rates. Using monthly industrial performance data,the authors estimate country-specific generalized vectorauto-regressions (GVAR) for the largest countries. They findthat during the sample period (1992-98) output volatility ismostly associated with shocks to domestic factors, but theslowdown in the sub-period 1998-99 is explained more than 60percent by shocks to the external factors.