Climate Change and Poverty : An Analytical Framework

Hallegatte, Stephane ; Bangalore, Mook ; Bonzanigo, Laura ; Fay, Marianne ; Narloch, Ulf ; Rozenberg, Julie ; Vogt-Schilb, Adrien

World Bank Group, Washington, DC

关键词: ACCESS TO INFORMATION;    ACCESS TO INFRASTRUCTURE;    AGRICULTURAL INCOMES;    AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY;    AGRICULTURAL SECTOR;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-7126
RP-ID  :  WPS7126

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

Climate change and climate policies willaffect poverty reduction efforts through direct andimmediate impacts on the poor and by affecting factors thatcondition poverty reduction, such as economic growth. Thispaper explores this relation between climate change andpolicies and poverty outcomes by examining three questions:the (static) impact on poor people's livelihood andwell-being; the impact on the risk for non-poor individualsto fall into poverty; and the impact on the ability of poorpeople to escape poverty. The paper proposes four channelsthat determine household consumption and through whichhouseholds may escape or fall into poverty (prices, assets,productivity, and opportunities). It then discusses whetherand how these channels are affected by climate change andclimate policies, focusing on the exposure, vulnerability,and ability to adapt of the poor (and those vulnerable topoverty). It reviews the existing literature and offersthree major conclusions. First, climate change is likely torepresent a major obstacle to a sustained eradication ofpoverty. Second, climate policies are compatible withpoverty reduction provided that (i) poverty concerns arecarefully taken into account in their design and (ii) theyare accompanied by the appropriate set of social policies.Third, climate change does not modify how poverty policiesshould be designed, but it creates greater needs and moreurgency. The scale issue is explained by the fact thatclimate will cause more frequent and more severe shocks; theurgency, by the need to exploit the window of opportunitygiven to us before climate impacts are likely tosubstantially increase.