Accessing Economic and Political Impacts of Hydrological Variability on Treaties : Case Studies on the Zambezi and Mekong Basins

Blankespoor, Brian ; Basist, Alan ; Dinar, Ariel ; Dinar, Shlomi

关键词: ADVERSE IMPACTS;    AGRICULTURE;    ALLOCATION OF WATER;    ARID AREAS;    ARID REGIONS;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-5996
RP-ID  :  WPS5996

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

International river basins will likelyface higher hydrologic variability due to climate change.Increased floods and droughts would have economic andpolitical consequences. Riparians of transboundary basinsgoverned by water treaties could experience non-complianceand inter-state tensions if flow falls below levels presumedin a treaty. Flow information is essential to cope withthese challenges through water storage, allocation, and use.This paper demonstrates a simple yet robust method, whichmeasures gauge station runoff with wetness values derivedfrom satellite data (1988-2010), for expanding sub-basinstream flow information to the entire river basin wherenatural flow information is limited. It demonstrates theapproach with flow level data that provide estimates ofmonthly runoff in near real time in two international riverbasins: Zambezi and Mekong. The paper includes an economicframework incorporating information on existing institutionsto assess potential economic and political impacts and toinform policy on conflict and cooperation between riparians.The authors conclude that satellite data modeled with gaugestation runoff reduce the uncertainty inherent innegotiating an international water agreement under increasedhydrological variability, and thus can assist policy makersto devise more efficient institutional apparatus.