Agriculture and Trade Opportunities for Tanzania : Past Volatility and Future Climate Change

Ahmed, Syud Amer ; Diffenbaugh, Noah S. ; Hertel, Thomas W. ; Martin, William J.

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: ADVERSE CLIMATE;    AGGREGATE DEMAND;    AGGREGATE LEVEL;    AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS;    AGRICULTURAL TRADE;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-6132
RP-ID  :  WPS6132

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

Given global heterogeneity inclimate-induced agricultural variability, Tanzania has thepotential to substantially increase its maize exports toother countries. If global maize production is lower thanusual due to supply shocks in major exporting regions,Tanzania may be able to export more maize at higher prices,even if it also experiences below-trend productivity.Diverse destinations for exports can allow for enhancedtrading opportunities when negative supply shocks affect thepartners' usual import sources. Future climatepredictions suggest that some of Tanzania's tradingpartners will experience severe dry conditions that mayreduce agricultural production in years when Tanzania isonly mildly affected. Tanzania could thus export grain tocountries as climate change increases the likelihood ofsevere precipitation deficits in other countries whilesimultaneously decreasing the likelihood of severeprecipitation deficits in Tanzania. Trade restrictions, likeexport bans, prevent Tanzania from taking advantage of theseopportunities, foregoing significant economic benefits.