Open Skies over the Middle East

Cristea, Anca ; Hillberry, Russell ; Mattoo, Aaditya

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: AIR;    AIR CARGO;    AIR LIBERALIZATION;    AIR PASSENGER;    AIR PASSENGERS;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-6937
RP-ID  :  WPS6937

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

The dynamism of air traffic markets inthe Middle East obscures the persistence of restrictions oninternational competition. But how important are suchrestrictions for passenger traffic? This paper uses detaileddata on worldwide passenger aviation to estimate the effectof air transport policy on international air traffic. Thepolicy variable is a quantitative measure of the commitmentsunder international agreements. The paper analyzes, for thefirst time, not only bilateral agreements, but alsoplurilateral agreements such as the one between Arab states.The analysis finds that more liberal policy is associatedwith greater passenger traffic between countries. Highertraffic levels appear to be driven primarily by largernumbers of city pairs being served, rather than by morepassengers traveling along given routes. To demonstrate thequantitative implication of the estimates, twoliberalization scenarios in the Middle East are evaluated.Deepening the plurilateral agreement among Arab states wouldlead to a 30 percent increase in intraregional passengertraffic. Widening the agreement to include Turkey wouldgenerate significantly larger gains because current policyvis-à-vis Turkey is much more restrictive.