Key Drivers of PPPs in Electricity Generation in Developing Countries : Cross-Country Evidence of Switching between PPP Investment in Fossil Fuel and Renewable-Based Generation

Vagliasindi, Maria

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: ALTERNATIVE ENERGY;    ALTERNATIVE ENERGY DEVELOPMENT;    APPROACH;    BALANCE;    BARRELS PER DAY;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-6118
RP-ID  :  WPS6118

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

This paper presents new global evidenceon the key determinants of public-private partnershipinvestment in electricity generated by fossil fuels andrenewable energy based on a panel data analysis for 105developing countries over a period of 16 years from 1993 to2008. It aims to identify the key factors affecting privateinvestors' decision to enter electricity generation,through probit analysis, and the amount of investment sunkin this market segment, based on Heckman's sampleselection analysis. The paper shows some evidence ofswitching from investment in fossil fuels to investment inhydro and renewables and within fossil fuels from oil tonatural gas. An interesting result of the econometricanalysis is that the likelihood of switching towardrenewable investment is driven by long-run environmentalfactors, such as the increases in the price of oil and theintroduction of the Kyoto protocol. Another interestingresult is that sector governance support schemes, providedby feed-in tariffs, affect only the entry in renewable basedelectricity generation and have no impact in reducing theamount of investment in fossil fuel based generation.Economy-wide governance factors, including control forcorruption and degree of political competition, are factoredin by private investors only in the initial stage of thegame when the decision to enter into the generation marketis taken and not the amount of investment. This confirmsthat the first generations of independent power producershave been developed on the basis of long-term power purchaseagreements guaranteeing a fixed rate of return, throughtake-or-pay clauses and/or government guarantees.