Tinker, Taper, QE, Bye? The Effect of Quantitative Easing on Financial Flows to Developing Countries

Lim, Jamus Jerome ; Mohapatra, Sanket ; Stocker, Marc

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: ACCOUNTING;    ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENTS;    ARBITRAGES;    ASSET CLASSES;    ASSET PRICE;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-6820
RP-ID  :  WPS6820

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

This paper examines gross financialinflows to developing countries between 2000 and 2013, witha particular focus on the potential effects of quantitativeeasing policies in the United States and other high-incomecountries. The paper finds evidence for potentialtransmission of quantitative easing along observableliquidity, portfolio balancing, and confidence channels.Moreover, quantitative easing had an additional effect overand above these observable channels, which the paper arguescannot be attributed to either market expectations orchanges in the structural relationships between inflows andobservable fundamentals. The baseline estimates place thelower bound of the effect of quantitative easing at around 5percent of gross inflows (for the average developingeconomy), which suggests that of the 62 percent increase ininflows during 2009-13 related to changing global monetaryconditions, at least 13 percent of this was attributable toquantitative easing. The paper also finds evidence ofheterogeneity among different types of flows; portfolio(especially bond) flows tend to be more sensitive thanforeign direct investment to our measured effects fromquantitative easing. Finally, the paper performs simulationsthat explore the potential effects of the withdrawal ofquantitative easing on financial flows to developing countries.