Population Size, Concentration, and Civil War : A Geographically Disaggregated Analysis

Hegre, Hå ; vard ; Raleigh, Clionadh

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: ARMED CONFLICT;    ARMED CONFLICTS;    CITIES;    CITIZEN;    CIVIL CONFLICT;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-4243
RP-ID  :  WPS4243

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

Why do larger countries have more armedconflict? This paper surveys three sets of hypothesesforwarded in the conflict literature regarding therelationship between the size and location of populationgroups: Hypotheses based on pure population mass, ondistances, on population concentrations, and some residualstate-level characteristics. The hypotheses are tested on anew dataset-ACLED (Armed Conflict Location and EventsDataset)-which disaggregates internal conflicts intoindividual events. The analysis covers 14 countries inCentral Africa. The conflict event data are juxtaposed withgeographically disaggregated data on populations, distanceto capitals, borders, and road networks. The paper developsa statistical method to analyze this type of data. Theanalysis confirms several of the hypotheses.