Can Global De-Carbonization Inhibit Developing Country Industrialization?

Mattoo, Aaditya ; Subramanian, Arvind ; van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique ; He, Jianwu

关键词: ADVERSE EFFECTS;    AGGREGATE DEMAND;    AGGREGATE PRODUCTION;    AIR;    AIR TRANSPORT;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-5121
RP-ID  :  WPS5121

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

Most economic analyses of climate changehave focused on the aggregate impact on countries ofmitigation actions. The authors depart first indisaggregating the impact by sector, focusing particularlyon manufacturing output and exports because of the potentialgrowth consequences. Second, they decompose the impact of anagreement on emissions reductions into three components: thechange in the price of carbon due to each country s emissioncuts per se; the further change in this price due toemissions tradability; and the changes due to anyinternational transfers (private and public). Manufacturingoutput and exports in low carbon intensity countries such asBrazil are not adversely affected. In contrast, in highcarbon intensity countries, such as China and India, even amodest agreement depresses manufacturing output by 6-7percent and manufacturing exports by 9-11 percent. Theincrease in the carbon price induced by emissionstradability hurts manufacturing output most while the Dutchdisease effects of transfers hurt exports most. If thegrowth costs of these structural changes are judged to besubstantial, the current policy consensus, which favorsemissions tradability (on efficiency grounds) supplementedwith financial transfers (on equity grounds), needs re-consideration.