What Explains Rwanda's Drop in Fertility between 2005 and 2010?

Bundervoet, Tom

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: ADULTS;    AGE DISTRIBUTION;    AGE GROUPS;    AGE-GROUP;    AGED;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-6741
RP-ID  :  WPS6741

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

Following a decade-and-a-half stall,fertility in Rwanda dropped sharply between 2005 and 2010.Using a hierarchical age-period-cohort model, this paperfinds that the drop in fertility is largely driven by cohorteffects, with younger cohorts having substantially fewerchildren than older cohorts observed at the same age. AnOaxaca-Blinder decomposition is applied on two successiverounds of the Demographic and Health Survey. The findingsshow that improved female education levels account for thelargest part of the fertility decline, with improvinghousehold living standards and the progressive move towardnon-agricultural employment being important secondarydrivers. The drop in fertility has been particularly salientfor the younger cohorts, for whom the fertility decline canbe fully explained by changes in underlying determinants,most notably the large increase in educational attainmentbetween 2005 and 2010.