How Might Climate Change Affect Economic Growth in Developing Countries? A Review of the Growth Literature with a Climate Lens

Lecocq, Franck ; Shalizi, Zmarak

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: ADVERSE CONSEQUENCES;    ADVERSE IMPACTS;    AGGREGATE LEVEL;    AGGREGATE OUTPUT;    AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-4315
RP-ID  :  WPS4315

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

This paper reviews the empirical andtheoretical literature on economic growth to examine how thefour components of the climate change bill, namelymitigation, proactive (ex ante) adaptation, reactive (expost) adaptation, and ultimate damages of climate changeaffect growth, especially in developing countries. Theauthors consider successively the Cass-Koopmans growth modeland three major strands of the subsequent literature ongrowth: with multiple sectors, with rigidities, and withincreasing returns. The paper finds that although the growthliterature rarely addresses climate change per se, someissues discussed in the growth literature are directlyrelevant for climate change analysis. Notably, destructionof production factors, or decrease in factor productivitymay strongly affect long-run equilibrium growth even inone-sector neoclassical growth models; climatic shocks havehad large impacts on growth in developing countries becauseof rigidities; and the introducing increasing returns has amajor impact on growth dynamics, in particular throughinduced technical change, poverty traps, or lock-ins. Amongthe most important gaps identified in the literature arelack of understanding of the channels by which shocks affecteconomic growth, lack of understanding of lock-ins, heavyreliance of numerical models assessing climate policies onneoclassical-type growth frameworks, and frequent use of aninappropriate "without climate change" counterfactual.