Social Consequences of the Global Financial Crisis in Latin America : Some Preliminary, and Surprisingly Optimistic, Conjectures

Ferreira, Francisco H.G. ; Schady, Norbert

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: AGGREGATE DEMAND;    ANTI-POVERTY;    BENEFICIARY;    CASH TRANSFERS;    CHANGES IN POVERTY;   

RP-ID  :  53546

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

Surprisingly, the most severe economiccrisis the world has seen since the great depression doesnot appear to have had as dramatic an impact on poverty inLatin America as might have been expected. The exceptions tothis heartening assessment are the countries geographicallyand economically closest to the United States, chieflyMexico. Elsewhere, although poverty statistics for 2008-09are not yet available, the data on output, unemployment andreal wages suggest relatively modest changes in poverty.There are two candidate explanations for thesmaller-than-expected increases in poverty in Latin America:lower output declines, deriving from enhanced protectionagainst external shocks; and a lower output elasticity ofpoverty. If the latter is indeed observed when the requireddata becomes available, the report conjecture that it mayreflect both the lower inflation rates now prevalent in theregion, and recent reforms in the social protection system.For all their faults, the social protection systems in manyLatin America and Caribbean (LAC) countries now reach thepoor rather than only the middle-classes. The note concludesarguing against complacency, and pointing to areas wherefurther research; and greater policy reform andexperimentation are needed.