China’s Marriage Market and Upcoming Challenges for Elderly Men

Das Gupta, Monica ; Ebenstein, Avraham ; Sharygin, Ethan Jennings

关键词: ABDUCTION;    ADULT LITERACY;    ADULT MORTALITY;    ADULTHOOD;    ADULTS;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-5351
RP-ID  :  WPS5351

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

Fertility decline has fueled a sharpincrease in the proportion of 'missing girls' inChina, so an increasing share of males will fail to marry,and will face old age without the support normally providedby wives and children. This paper shows that historically,China has had nearly-universal marriage for women and a verycompetitive market for men. Lower-educated men experiencehigher rates of bachelorhood while women favor men withbetter prospects, migrating if needed from poorer towealthier areas. The authors examine the anticipated effectsof this combination of bride shortage and hypergamy, fordifferent regions of China. Their projections indicate thatunmarried males will likely be concentrated in poorerprovinces with low fiscal ability to provide socialprotection to their citizens. Such geographic concentrationof unmarried males could be socially disruptive, and thepaper s findings suggest a need to expand the coverage ofsocial protection programs financed substantially by thecentral government.