Demand Growth versus Market Share Gains : Decomposing World Manufacturing Import Growth

Aksoy, M. Ataman ; Ng, Francis

World Bank, Washington, DC

关键词: ABSOLUTE VALUE;    ACCOUNTING;    AGRICULTURAL TRADE;    ANNUAL IMPORT;    AVERAGE EXCHANGE RATES;   

DOI  :  10.1596/1813-9450-6375
RP-ID  :  WPS6375

学科分类：社会科学、人文和艺术（综合）

来源: World Bank Open Knowledge Repository

【 摘 要 】

This paper decomposes manufacturingimport growth rates in a selected set of large industrialand developing countries (five industrial and eightdeveloping) and measures the relative contributions ofdomestic demand and market share changes for two separateperiods 1991/92 - 2001/02 and 2001/02 - 2007/08. It alsoshows the shares of imports both from the rest of the worldand from developing countries for aggregate and three-digitmanufacturing sectors. Import growth is much higher duringthe 2000s driven by higher demand growth rates. While marketshare changes explain most of the growth during the 1990s,its contribution is relatively smaller during the 2000s.Imports from developing countries have grown much fasterboth in industrial and developing country markets drivenprimarily by market share changes. However, more than halfof market share gains by developing countries are caused bythe exports of China, which accounts for more than 70percent of market share gains of developing countries in thesample countries during the 2000s. Despite rapid growth,developing countries' share in the gross absorption ofthe sample countries is still low and can expandsubstantially even if demand growth is much lower in thenear future.